Brighton and the coming energy crisis

To download this report as a Word document, click here.

Contents

1. Introduction

2. Transport energy consumption
2.1. Current situation in the UK
2.2. Trends in an oil and gas crisis
2.3. Brighton in an oil and gas crisis
2.4. Recommendations for individuals
2.5. Recommendations for businesses and organizations
2.6. Recommendations for the local government

3. Other energy consumption
3.1. Current situation in the UK
3.1.1. Domestic energy consumption
3.1.2. Industrial energy consumption
3.1.3. Service energy consumption
3.2. Trends in an oil and gas crisis
3.3. Brighton in an oil and gas crisis
3.4. Recommendations for individuals
3.5. Recommendations for businesses and organizations
3.6. Recommendations for the local government

4. Socio-economic consequences
4.1. Current situation in the UK
4.2. Trends in an oil and gas crisis
4.3. Brighton in an oil and gas crisis
4.4. Recommendations for individuals
4.5. Recommendations for businesses and organizations
4.6. Recommendations for the local government
5. References

1. Introduction

There have been numerous studies that suggest that the world is going to face an energy crisis soon (so soon that it may have started already), due to physical limits in the amount of oil and gas that can be produced.

This study won’t address the issues of whether we are reaching the world peak in oil and/or gas production, but rather, assumes that the theory that peak oil and gas will happen within the next 10 years is correct. If this were true, what would be the consequences for Brighton? And what can be done to be prepared for such an eventuality, by individuals, companies, and the Brighton council? The aim of this study is to answer these questions.

For this, we have looked into all the areas that we considered relevant, from the ones that would be most immediately impacted (transport) to the most remote (socioeconomic implications). In each area, we have considered the current situation in the UK, then the trends that are to be expected in an energy crisis due to peak oil and gas, and finally, the specific considerations for Brighton.

We hope that this study will drive every person who reads it to action, in whatever spheres action is possible for them.

2. Transport energy consumption

2.1. Current situation in the UK

Transport forms a key part of our everyday lives, both because the products that we buy are often transported over long distances and because people often travel for personal or business reasons.

Transport energy consumption has almost doubled since 1970.

Chart 2.1

Almost all the energy used in transport comes from petroleum-based fuels. The only method of transport that uses another type of energy is electric rail, which accounts for less than 1% of all energy used for transport.


Chart 2.2


Transport can be considered in two ways, in terms of people (passengers) and in terms of goods (freight). While it is difficult to split rail, water and air transport into clear breakdowns of passenger and freight, it is more straightforward to calculate a breakdown for road transport. It is estimated that about two thirds of the energy used in road transport was from road passengers and the rest from road freight. Since 1990, road freight energy consumption has increased by 17%, whereas road passenger energy consumption has remained almost the same, increasing by just 1%.

Changes in transport energy consumption can occur for efficiency, technological or economic reasons. Changes between 1990 and 2000 can be attributed to two factors: output (change in miles travelled) and intensity (change in the amount of energy needed per mile). Of the overall change in the transport sector between 1990 and 2000, it is estimated that 90% was due to changes in output while the remaining 10% was due to intensity changes. Road transport intensity has varied little: freight energy intensity has increased by 4% since 1990, while energy intensity in the road passenger sub-sector has fallen by 2% since 1990. This indicates that it is much easier to change output (distance travelled) than it is to change intensity, or efficiency.

The change in the amount of freight moved, measured in tonne-kilometres, is shown in the chart below. Half of the total tonne-kilometres were met by road. Between 1970 and 2000 the amount of freight moved by road rose by 86%. The increase has been enabled by an improved road network that can accommodate larger and heavier vehicles.

Chart 2.3


In 2000, 721 billion passenger kilometres were travelled in Great Britain. This corresponds to 12 thousand kilometres per person. Passenger kilometres from air and rail have increased since 1970, whereas passenger kilometres from buses have fallen over the same time period.

Chart 2.4


Car occupancy rates for commuting and business related journeys are low, at an average of between 1.1 and 1.2 people per car. Average occupancy rates in 1998/2000 for family holidays were 2.2 people per car, for education 2.1, and 1.9 for leisure.

2.2. Trends in an oil and gas crisis

All forms of transport will be affected with peak oil and gas. As we have seen already, almost all forms of transport currently used in the UK, use some form of petroleum-based fuel.

The only exception is electric rail. But as much of our electricity comes from power stations that use natural gas as its main fuel, it would be hasty to assume that electric rail will not suffer. Still, as there are ready available alternatives to natural gas in the production of electricity, it’s fairly likely that there will be a trend towards more electric and less diesel trains.

Not all forms of petroleum-based transport will be affected equally. This is for two reasons:

1) With peak oil there will be more scarcity of light oil than of heavy oil. This means that light fuels (such as gasoline) will be harder to acquire than heavier fuels.
2) Some forms of transport are more energy intensive (use more energy per kilometer and tonne) than others. It will be relatively cheaper to use transport that is more energy efficient.

The lightest fuel used in transport is gasoline (petrol). The heaviest is diesel or gas oil. Kerosene, used for aviation fuel, is intermediate. It’s possible to deduce from this a trend towards diesel motors in road transport. Diesel is also more energy dense, which means that average miles per litre or gallon is higher in diesel vehicles than in gasoline vehicles.

The following graph shows the big differences in energy intensity of different forms of transport:

Chart 2.5


It is reasonable to assume that freight transport by sea and rail will increase. Passenger transport by rail is also likely to increase and air transport will decrease.

It’s possible that, at some point in the future, the UK will be confronted with real shortages of petroleum-based fuels. This is likely to affect air and road transport more heavily, as the preference is most likely to be to keep well stocked the most energy-efficient and essential transport.

High transport prices and transport disruptions will affect more strongly those companies most dependent on transport. It’s easy to identify the two categories of companies most affected:
1) Transport companies, especially those using the least energy-efficient methods of transport (airlines, haulers, couriers, etc.)
2) Heavy users of transport: Those companies that need frequent and/or abundant supply and/or distribution.

Chart 2.6


The chart above gives a breakdown of which company types use transport most heavily. We can deduce from this that the companies most affected by a rise on transport prices will be mostly in one of the following categories:
- Food industry
- Building industry
- Producers of manufactured consumer goods, with those producing goods that are at the same time cheap, heavy or bulky and frequently used most affected (like cheap furniture or toys).

In the area of personal travel, the chart below shows how many miles are traveled for each purpose:

Chart 2.7


The most obvious way a person can cut personal travel is reducing on leisure travel (holidays, nights out, etc.) Commuting and business travel is another big part of personal travel, but most people have limited options to reduce that type of traveling. It is reasonable to predict a trend towards a reduction in leisure traveling, and change in holiday locations to places closer to home.

2.3. Brighton in an oil and gas crisis

Brighton’s average miles per person per year is higher than the national average (around 8,000, compared with a national average of around 7,000). Part of the reason for this is probably that the average salaries are higher, too, which means that locals can afford it. But it would be careless to discount other factors, mainly the proximity to London. There is a significant population of commuters to London, and it’s also a favourite destination for leisure activities and occasional shopping.

Commuters are a significant fraction of the total workers. 17% of Brighton workers travel 20km or more to work. And 48% of workers use a car to go to work, either as a driver or as a passenger. Given that for most people it’s difficult and slow to change job to a workplace closer to home or change home to a location closer to the workplace, with rising petrol prices their options are reduced. Some will be able to switch to a more efficient mode of transport, and others will have to cut spending in other areas.

Brighton is very well communicated in all forms of transport. If there were any transport disruptions, Brighton is unlikely to be any worse off than London.

Brighton isn’t a major manufacturing center, so there are few industries that would be affected by rising cost of transport. But there is a large amount of catering business, and there has been so far little effort on part of the business to obtain food from local farmers. As food prices rise due to more expensive transport, they will have to look at local sources.

Brighton is also one of the few tourist destinations within the UK. When people in other parts of the country choose to give up on holidays abroad because airplane fares are getting too expensive, Brighton could experience a new boom in tourism.

2.4. Recommendations for individuals

There are several ways individuals can deal with high petrol prices and transport issues. The chart on the Trends section showed which were the main purposes individuals have for traveling. We will consider each of the main purposes separately.

1. Leisure. This is an area where individuals can easily reduce traveling. Reducing the numbers of leisure trips and choosing destinations closer to home are lifestyle options available to all.
2. Commuting and business. Business travel will be studied in the next section, which deals with recommendations for businesses and organizations. As for commuting, there are a number of alternatives worth considering:
a. Public transport (trains and buses).
b. Cycling.
c. Car pooling with colleagues.
d. A more fuel efficient vehicle (a smaller vehicle, a hybrid or a motorcycle).
e. Teleworking.
3. Shopping. Almost all Brighton residents can do their grocery shopping in shops within walking distance. For any other shopping, it’s sensible to wait until the weekend and do one shopping trip a week to the centre of town, unless it’s an emergency. To buy articles that aren’t available in Brighton, it’s often possible to acquire them by catalog or over the Internet.
4. Education and escorting education. Public transport is almost always available to reach educational institutions.

Individuals owning a car should consider if it is at all possible to do without it. Many people have found that a combination of public transport, cycling, taxis and hiring vehicles when needed provide successfully all their transportation needs, at a much cheaper total cost. If this isn’t practical, due consideration should be given to switching to a more efficient vehicle (a smaller car, a hybrid or a motorcycle.) Even if changing to a different vehicle isn’t possible, the least an individual can do is learn techniques of driving that are more fuel efficient. The Internet is a good resource to learn about “hypermiling”, or driving efficiently.

As a final recommendation, those who own a vehicle fuelled by oil-derived products (petrol or diesel) should find out if it’s possible for them to use biofuels. In Brighton, biofuels can be acquired from Shabitat, Saunder's Park, Lewes Road, Brighton, East Sussex BN2 4AY tel: 01273 677577

2.5. Recommendations for businesses and organizations

Businesses and organizations need transport for several reasons. We will consider each of them separately.

1. Acquisition of supplies. Local suppliers should be used whenever possible. Any supplies that need to travel long distances should be acquired in bulk, to reduce transport costs. If it’s possible to choose the means of transport, the one with the lowest energy intensity should be chosen (as seen in the graph above, the forms of transport from most to least efficient are marine, rail, road and air).
2. Distribution of products. Distribution should be in bulk whenever possible. If it’s possible to choose the means of transport, the one with the lowest energy intensity should be chosen. There have been cases where vegetables grown 1 mile from town were taken to a distribution depot 20 miles away, then back into town. This is wasteful and it will become more and more expensive. Nowadays, food travels an average of 123km before it reaches its final destination, compared with 82km in 1978. Finding the shortest and most efficient routes for distribution will be a worthwhile practice.
3. Business trips by employees. They should be limited as much as possible, especially by plane. Organizations should ensure that any mileage reimbursement rates are at a level which does not encourage additional travel and ensures that only essential travel is undertaken. Some of the possible ways of reducing the amount and length of business trips include:
a. Improved communication so traveling for face-to-face meetings becomes unnecessary.
b. Finding shorter routes for travel.
c. Having others travel instead of members of the company or organization.
4. Commuting by employees. Commuting is often considered as a problem of the employees exclusively, and the common view is that the employer doesn’t need to get involved in it. But, as transport costs increase, companies and organizations that ignore this issue may find that their employees demand higher salaries to cover the rising costs of commuting. Any company or organization that takes measures to deal with this issue will be ahead of the rest. Measures that help commuters may include:
a. Encouraging the use of public transport, for example, by negotiating discounts on public transport, or providing interest-free loans to buy yearly season tickets.
b. Providing facilities for cyclists, such as bicycle racks. Access to showers will make cycling more attractive.
c. Organizing an efficient car-pooling system among employees.
d. Raising awareness among employees about fuel efficiency.
e. Promoting teleworking in the company or organization.
f. Helping employees who wish to relocate closer to work, for example, by giving them free time for flat hunting.

Any vehicles used by the company or organization should be checked for efficiency, and substitution by more efficient vehicles should be done as soon as it’s practical. Also, for any vehicle that uses oil-derived products (petrol or diesel), it should be studied if using biofuels is a possibility.

Any business or organization can benefit from having a travel plan and establishing partnerships to collaborate in travel planning. A copy of ‘A Travel Plan resource pack for employers’ from the Energy Saving Trust contains information about travel planning, what a travel plan is, measurement and evaluation, promotion and presenting the benefits to secure senior buy-in.

Finally, companies that operate in the transport service may find it increasingly difficult to provide a competitive service. Moving into more essential areas within the business (transport of more essential goods) can be a good strategic approach.

2.6. Recommendations for the local government

The local council should make one of its priorities to promote transport efficiency at all levels. Firstly, it should lead the way, by reducing any unnecessary travel within the public sector and applying to itself the recommendations above for businesses and organizations. The Council should consider greener, cheaper, alternative fuels for council vehicles, for example, using biodiesel in older 'out of warranty vehicles’ and consider biogas from landfill waste to fuel refuse trucks. The Council should also look at the newer hybrid and electric vans. There are grants for installing alternative fuels infrastructure that should be considered. The Energy Saving Trust will provide a consultant to look at the local government fleet for free, and give advice about how to increase its efficiency and save money, fuel and carbon emissions.

Secondly, it should help people to reduce their traveling and to use more efficient transport.

To promote a reduction in traveling, the Council can:
1. Refuse to approve developments that are mostly residential and do not contain enough shopping areas for the needs of the residents. Mixed developments, where residents can also easily find jobs within the area, should be encouraged.
2. Work towards decentralization of schools. Many small schools well distributed across town are preferable to a few schools. Public transport should be available to all students.
3. Promote teleworking, especially among small businesses, that are often not aware of the possibility.
4. Promote the use of local suppliers for all businesses and organizations.
5. Study which types of jobs are held by commuters to London, and encourage companies that provide those jobs to locate in Brighton, so that commuting is reduced.

To promote more efficient transport, the Council can work in the following areas:
1. Public transport. Make it as attractive as possible. Ensure that information about public transport is available for all. Ensure that shopping areas and educational institutions are easily accessible by public transport.
2. Cycling. Increase the amount of cycle paths and facilities for cyclists, such as racks for bicycles. Start an education programme for drivers, in order to reduce accidents involving a bicycle.
3. Encouraging fuel efficiency. Start an education programme so people are aware of the most efficient transport options.
4. Promote biofuels. Work closely with suppliers of biofuels so that there is enough information on its use and a reasonable supply.
5. Promote responsible driving. Get copies of the Energy Saving Trust top ten tips for drivers, and distribute them to council drivers and commuters. Use the tips in leaflets for your local community.

3. Other energy consumption

3.1. Current situation in the UK

3.1.1. Domestic energy consumption

The majority of energy consumed in the domestic sector is for space heating, which accounted for 58% of all delivered energy consumed in 2000 (see Chart 3.1). Space heating in any year is largely dependent on outside temperatures which explains the year-to-year fluctuations, although increases in internal temperatures, the growth in central heating and the increased number of households have all contributed to the increase over the period 1970 to 2000, despite the increased presence of insulation. The other major areas of energy consumption in the domestic sector are for heating water, for lighting and appliances and for cooking. Between 1970 and 2000, energy consumption in lighting and appliances increased by 157%, while energy use in cooking has fallen by 16%.

Chart 3.1


In 1970 gas (including town gas) accounted for 24% of total domestic energy consumption and for 67% by 2001, whereas coal accounted for 39% in 1970 and just 4% by 2001. Electricity consumption has increased by 50% over the period, mainly due to the increased use of electricity for lighting and appliances in the home. The individual countries within the UK have wide disparities in the mix of fuels used in the domestic sector.

The fuel mix in the domestic sector for space heating has changed significantly over the last three decades. In 1970 10% of households in Great Britain were centrally heated by gas and 9% used solid fuels. In 2000 71% used gas for central heating and just 3% used solid fuels. Electrical storage heating accounted for 6% of the total in 1970 and 9% in 2000. Less than a third of all housing stock in Great Britain had central heating in 1970. Thirty years later the proportion had risen to 89%.

In the area of electricity consumption, it should be noted that by 2000, energy consumption by cold appliances had increased by 274% on 1970 levels and was the second largest consuming group, after lighting. Lighting accounted for 23% of the total amount of electricity consumed for lighting and appliances in the domestic sector while cold appliances accounted for 22%.

3.1.2 Industrial energy consumption

Industrial energy consumption accounted for more than a fifth of all UK energy consumption in 2001, consuming 35,152 thousand tonnes of oil equivalent. In 2001 the largest sub-sector was the chemicals industry, accounting for 22% of all industrial energy consumption (mainly for the manufacture of basic chemicals), while the food, drink and tobacco industry consumed a further 12%. A fifth of all energy consumed in the food, drink and tobacco industry was for sugar manufacture, while a further 13% was used for making beverages and another 10% for the production, processing and preserving of meat and meat products.

Energy use in the industrial sector has changed as the structure and way that energy is used has
changed. Energy consumption has fallen by 44% since 1970 and by 9 % since 1990, although there was a change in definition used to classify the industrial sector between 1995 and 1996 - energy used in transformation activities, for example, manufacturing coke or generating electricity, is excluded from the total from 1996 onwards.

The use of different fuels within the industrial sector has also changed over time reflecting changes in the way that energy is used in different processes and industries. Since 1996, coal and oil consumption have fallen by 40% and 7% respectively. Chart 3.2 shows fuel use in the industrial sector in 2001. The share of natural gas consumed has increased from 41% of all energy consumed in 1996 in the industrial sector to 44% in 2001, replacing solid fuels which fell from 9% to 6% as technological changes have enabled alternative fuels to be used.

Chart 3.2


Between 1970 and 2001 overall energy consumption per unit of output, a measure of energy intensity, fell by 55% while industrial output rose by 26%. The reduction in overall industrial energy intensity since 1970 is partly due to the relative decline in the importance of energy intensive industry in the economy as less energy-intensive industry and services have become more prominent.

Energy intensity has also fallen due to improvements in energy efficiency and technologies used in production processes. Between 1997 and 1999 it is estimated that there was an overall energy efficiency improvement of 4% in the food and drink industry, 6% in the chemical sector and 9% in the textiles industry. The main methods to increase efficiency were improved energy management, fitting new boilers, improvements made to steam processes, improvements to motors and improvements to compressed air processes.

3.1.3. Service energy consumption

Service sector energy consumption (excluding agriculture) accounted for 13% of all final energy consumed for energy purposes in 2001.

The way that the service sector uses energy has changed over time. As in other sectors, consumption of coal and oil has fallen over the last thirty years as natural gas usage has increased. Since 1990 electricity consumption has more than doubled, mainly due to the growth in electrical equipment supporting service sector activities, such as information technology, air conditioning, medical and leisure equipment. In 2000 one third of all service sector electricity consumption is from the retail sector where electricity is mainly used for lighting, although shops vary considerably in their electricity needs, with certain types such as hairdressers and dry cleaners having high requirements. A further 14% of all service sector electricity consumption is from hotel and catering where electricity is mainly used for catering. The greater importance of lighting and air conditioning in the private commercial sector means that electricity accounts for a larger share in the private sector than in public services.

This large growth in electricity consumption means that the energy requirements of the service sector have grown by 29% since 1970 and by 12% since 1990 in primary energy equivalents. This measure takes into account the amount of energy required to generate the electricity consumed as well as the other fuels that are used as a direct energy source.

More than half of all energy consumed in the service sector was for space heating in 2000. Hot water energy consumption accounted for a further 9%, lighting for 14% and catering for an additional 10% of the total.

Chart 3.3


Of the increase of 2.4 million tonnes of oil equivalent between 1990 and 2000, it is estimated that service sector energy consumption would have increased by 6.2 million tonnes of oil equivalent due to changes in output, although this was offset by a 3.8 million tonnes of oil equivalent improvement in energy intensity, which consists of energy efficiency and structural changes within the public administration and commercial sub-sectors. This rise in intensity is due to a combination of more efficient heating systems, insulation, greater efficiency of lighting and electrical equipment and improved energy management leading to appliances being switched off when not in use.

The relative energy intensity of individual types of building in the service sector can also be measured by floor space. In 2000 77% of the total working population were employed in the service sector, an increase of 4% since 1994. The increased number of employees has resulted in an increase in floor area of 7% over the same period, requiring more energy for space heating.

3.2. Trends in an oil and gas crisis

The main impact of peak oil and gas on domestic, industrial and service energy consumption will be in the usage of natural gas, whether directly or indirectly (most indirect usage of natural gas is in the form of electricity).

Chart 3.4


In the early 1970s, following the advent of natural gas, gas consumption grew rapidly. Industrial consumption peaked 2000 and has fallen since then by around 20%. Over the last 20 years domestic consumption has grown by 30% and services consumption by 42%. However, since 1991 the growth in gas consumption has been dominated by its increasing use in electricity generation, which now accounts for 30% of all natural gas consumption.
The mix of fuels used for electricity generation has changed significantly in the past. Chart 3.5 shows the mix for 1990 compared with 2004. This gives us a clear idea of how fast it is possible to substitute one form of electricity generation for another, and means that a shortage in natural gas could be easily overcome, if alternative energy sources are available.

Chart 3.5


Finding substitutes for the natural gas from the North Sea oilfields is already a matter of urgency for the government. The UK began exporting natural gas in 1993 but did not become a net exporter of gas until 1997. Exports grew rapidly with the opening of the Bacton-Zeebrugge interconnector in 1998 and net exports reached their peak in 2003. In 2004, with the decline in UK natural gas production, exports of gas fell by 35% compared with 2003 and imports increased by 54% and the UK became a net importer of gas once again.

Chart 3.6


This data contrasts starkly with the projections for generation mix of electricity shown by the government, as seen in chart 3.7. It’s fairly clear that a proposal where natural gas covers the gap in demand that other fuels can’t supply is very unrealistic, taking into account that the UK is already a net importer of gas and that world gas is projected to peak around 2012.

Chart 3.7


While, in the case of transport, it’s clear that peak oil and gas will necessarily have a negative impact, because there aren’t any alternatives to oil-based transport that could be deployed in the short term, when it comes to the use of energy in the domestic, industrial and services sector, the picture is clearly different.

If the government and industry generally assume that natural gas will continue to be available from imports, there will be little building of infrastructure for alternatives to gas in electricity generation and heating. In that case, an oil and gas crisis will have a significant impact on the usage of energy in all sectors: domestic, industrial and services. On the other hand, if the government and industry generally assume that natural gas will be in short supply and build the necessary infrastructure, the transition could be very smooth and the general public may not even notice it.

If there is no effort to build the necessary infrastructure for heating, not all areas in the UK will be affected equally. It’s clear that the North needs more heating than the South, but different proportions of gas in the heating mix mean that there isn’t a direct relationship between geography and usage of gas. Chart 3.8 compares the usage of gas per domestic consumer in the different regions in the UK. The South West has the most moderate usage of gas, while the North East has the most intensive usage.

Chart 3.8


Similarly, not everybody will be equally affected by lack of capacity in electricity generation. Chart 3.9 shows the major users of electricity. More than half the electricity is used in domestic, commercial and public administration uses. Of the rest, losses and the energy industry itself use up about a sixth. Among industrial uses, chemicals, paper and printing and the food industry use the most electricity.

It’s worth remembering at this point that the food industry is also one of the major users of transport, and catering is one of the major users of electricity in the service sector. An oil and gas crisis would clearly affect the food industry more than most, and would possibly cause rises in prices of food across the board, but most especially for frozen and chilled foods.

Chart 3.9


3.3. Brighton in an oil and gas crisis

Brighton’s usage of gas per domestic consumer is lower than the national average. This is partly due to the milder climate, partly because the average size of flats is small, and partly because usage of gas for heating is lower than in other cities. Brighton also uses and less than half the average of gas for commercial and industrial uses, because there are no industries that make a heavy use of gas in the area.

Similarly, usage of electricity per domestic consumer is slightly lower than the national average, and industrial and commercial use is around half the average. Again, there are no major industrial or commercial users of electricity.

This means that a shortage of gas is likely to affect Brighton less than other places in Great Britain. However, we have already identified catering, that is one of the main business sectors in Brighton, as particularly vulnerable. Unless measures are taken to protect this sector, they are likely to suffer in an energy crisis.
Another concern is that some tourist attractions, especially the Palace Pier, use a great amount of electricity, possibly in a wasteful manner. If there were power cuts due to lack of capacity in the electrical networks, such tourist attractions could become much less profitable.

3.4 Recommendations for individuals

There are many ways individuals can cut on their domestic use of energy, and information is readily available from many sources on this subject. However, we will present here a brief overview on the matter.

The main usage of energy in most British homes is space heating, about 61%, followed by water heating, 23%. This means heating is the area where the most significant savings can be made.

Ideally, the hot water and the space heating system should be separate. This is because space heating isn’t necessary during the summer and can be turned off during the whole season, while hot water is needed all year round.

Of the fuels used in Britain for heating, two will be directly affected by peak oil and gas. Only 3% use fuel oil for heating, but 71% use gas. In the long term, users of both systems will have to change to something else. On the other hand, the second most commonly used heating method is electric heaters, and they are inefficient and subject to power cuts if there are electric capacity issues. In the short term, while an important fraction of electricity comes from gas, using electric heaters uses up more gas. Heating with coal has practically disappeared, and it’s environmentally undesirable. In short: none of the traditional methods of heating is at all satisfactory.

If solar thermal heating is a possibility in a particular home, it should definitely be considered. There are local installers of solar thermal systems, and the contact details are available on request. Geothermal methods (heat pumps) can also be very effective.

If it’s impractical or financially unfeasible to install an alternative heating system, the best choice for an individual is to stay with the system they already have (especially if they belong to the 89% of those in Brighton that have central heating), and improve efficiency with insulation. In time, the opportunity to change to a different system may present itself.

Significant improvements in heating costs can be made with insulation:
- Only 36% of people living in homes with cavity walls have cavity wall insulation, and it greatly improves energy efficiency, up to 33% of total heating costs.
- Insulating the loft space or a flat roof can provide up to 20% of savings.
- Sealing all gaps around doors, floors, windows and pipes can reduce costs up to 20%, if all gaps are taken care of.
- A properly insulated boiler can save significant amounts of energy in water heating, up to 60% in comparison with an uninsulated one.
- Hot water pipe insulation can save up to 6% of total heating costs.

For individuals who can't afford insulation, or who rent and can’t make such changes in their homes, even basic heat-saving measures can help. Some of them are:
- Heat only the rooms where there are people.
- Close the door of the room you are heating so heat can't escape. If your home doesn't have doors where you need them, at least put on heavy curtains.
- Make sure that your doors and windows fit exactly in their frames, and if they don’t, fill in the space with insulation.
- Heavy curtains can help to keep the warmth during the winter. But if your heater is under the window, the curtain shouldn't cover the heater, or the heat will be driven towards the outside.
- A thermostat can keep you warm and save energy as well, if it's installed correctly.
- Always replace washers on leaking taps, especially hot water ones. A leaking tap can waste liters of water every day, and a hot water tap doesn’t only waste water but the energy to heat it.
- Take showers instead of baths, as they use less hot water. If your bathroom only has a bath, convert it so it is also a shower.

The next main energy expenditure in the home is lighting and electrical appliances. Only 2% of the electricity is generated by oil-based products. But 37% is generated by natural gas, and the prices of electricity are already being affected by the decline in British gas production. Individuals need to be prepared for possible power cuts in the future.

There are some easy electricity conservation measures anybody can take. Everybody should get into the habit of switching off lights and appliances when they don’t use them. This also means not just leaving them in standby, but actually switching them off, and for those appliances that use a power adaptor, unplugging the power adaptor or switching off at the socket, not just on the appliance itself. Also, substituting electrical appliances for energy-efficient ones can be well worth the expense, and it can come naturally if people are advised to do it when the old ones break down. Lightbulbs are the best-known example, but the same effort to acquire the most energy-efficient option should be applied to any electrical equipment.

Ideally, individuals should strive to provide some of their electricity needs from alternative energy sources. Wind, solar and micro-hydro solutions are all worth looking at. The best solution will depend on the orientation and location of the house. In the past, planning permissions used to be an issue with some forms of alternative energy, but there have been great changes recently and the legal requirements have softened significantly.

To prepare for the eventuality of power cuts, it can be a good idea for individuals to make a list of the most important electrical appliances they use and get some alternatives to use on a power cut. For a start, everybody should have candles at home to make sure they will always have light. People with an electric cooker can get a camping gas bottle so they can cook during a power cut. For people with electric heating, a stove that uses gas bottles may be a good emergency solution. Those that keep important information in their home computer should consider an uninterruptible power supply to avoid losing data in the hard disk during a sudden power cut. Homeworkers that use a computer to work may want to use a laptop with a long battery life to be able to keep working.

The last area of energy usage in the home is cooking. When cooking, people should remember that the shorter time something takes to cook, the less energy it uses. Microwave ovens are ideal because they cook very fast. An energy-efficient electrical kitchen is possibly better than a gas one, because the rising costs of gas will affect it relatively less.

Whatever energy saving measures are taken, it’s important to check regularly the meter readings for gas and electricity, so people know how much energy they are saving. Some companies (like EDF) have a reward scheme for people who send regular meter readings, which make it easier for people to keep doing it. And reading the meters is of little use if the figures aren’t written down and compared to previous readings, so individuals are aware of their progress in energy usage.

3.5 Recommendations for businesses and organizations

For most commercial and office spaces, the same recommendations as for individuals apply.

It would take very long to describe all the energy-saving measures that other types of businesses could apply, so we will just give a brief list of the most successful ones:
- Improved energy management (switching off machines when not in use)
- Fitting more efficient boilers
- More efficient heating systems
- Insulation
- Improvements in steam distribution processes
- Improvements in compressed air systems
- Improvements in motors
- More efficient lighting
- More efficient electrical equipment

As described on previous sections, the catering sector is likely to be most affected in Brighton. So we will go into some more detail on the subject of energy saving on catering.

Cooking equipment
- Only preheat equipment that you are going to use.
- Preheat equipment just before you use it, not many minutes or hours in advance.
- Reduce the temperature or turn equipment off during quieter periods of the day.
- Whenever possible, use full production capacity.
- Use appropriately sized equipment for each particular operation.
- Remember that the greatest waste of energy in cooking is leaving equipment idling at operating temperature. Savings can result by simply turning equipment off whenever possible.

Hot food holding and transporting equipment
- Use equipment at full capacity.
- Check timing devices and thermostats regularly.
- Check door seals to ensure heat is retained.

Refrigeration equipment
- Make sure door gaskets fit snugly.
- Keep evaporator coils free of excessive frost.
- Keep condenser coils free of dust, lint, or anything that could reduce air circulation.
- Locate equipment away from heat sources.
- Open doors as little as possible.
- Place cold foods in the fridge or freezer as soon as they arrive from the supplier.

Dish washing equipment
- Select the most appropriately-sized machine for the job.
- Make sure the equipment is properly installed and adjusted.
- Fully load the machine for each cycle.
- Keep equipment clean and unclogged.

Water heating
- Locate the water heater as near as possible to the point of most frequent use.
- Wrap hot water pipes in insulation.
- Replace washers on leaking taps.

Kitchen ventilation system
- Only operate the number of fans required for the level of smoke and fumes at the time.
- Position the ventilation canopy to take advantage of the natural flow of air through the kitchen.
- Clean filters frequently, daily if necessary.

Lighting
- Use light sources with the highest relative efficiency. For example, use fluorescent or compact fluorescent globes wherever possible.
- Locate lights in order to optimise lighting of work areas.
- Don’t allow dirt to accumulate on lights.

For all equipment
- When purchasing equipment, ask suppliers about the energy consumption for each item. Running costs of equipment are ypically five to 10 times the purchase cost.
- Select a machine that is the most appropriate for the job, not too big, not too small.
- Keep equipment as clean as possible.
- Keep equipment in an optimum state of maintenance and repair any faults promptly.

3.6. Recommendations for the local government

The local council should make one of its priorities to promote energy efficiency at all levels. Firstly, it should lead by example, by reducing energy usage within the public sector and applying to itself the recommendations above for businesses and organizations. It should take every opportunity to improve the energy efficiency of council buildings and reduce fuel bills. The Carbon Trust can be contacted for more information. It should also ensure energy efficient policies are put in place by all sub-contractors, which exerts pressure down the supply chain to improve energy performance. One area where significant changes can be made is in street and traffic lights, which should all be changed to the most energy-efficient options.

Secondly, it should help people to reduce their energy use. The Council can:
1. In the case of new developments, there is much scope to encourage energy efficiency. In December 1998 local authorities were granted a general disposal consent enabling them to accept tenders up to 20% (land value £1 million or less) or 10% (in the case of higher values) lower than the land value. Local authorities are therefore no longer required to maximize income from land sales, but can consider lower bids within a certain range. It is recommended that this change is brought to the attention of local authorities along with information regarding the opportunities for using this as a mechanism for encouraging energy efficient housing developments. Local authority attention should also be drawn to existing government guidance on attaching monetary values to environmental benefits, published in ‘The Green Book – Appraisal and Evaluation in Central Government’. This information could be incorporated into the appropriate planning policy guidelines.
2. Offer advice and support to developers to ensure they meet the highest energy efficiency standards in the most cost effective manner. Keeping developers on side will ensure highest standards achieved at lowest cost.
3. Introduce a prescriptive energy efficiency planning policy - require developers to comply with a prescriptive policy in the implementation of their development. There is a case study on the London Borough of Merton's use of a planning condition on non-residential buildings over 1,000 square meters to incorporate sustainable energy in developments.
4. Set energy efficiency standards that go beyond current building regulations in the design, construction and refurbishment of homes.
5. Provide advice on energy efficiency/renewable energy to householders applying for planning permission. This will maximise the opportunity for the uptake of energy efficiency measures when building work is undertaken. Help to remove barriers to renewable energy within domestic installations by ensuring householders requesting planning permission for renewable energy installations are well advised.
6. Ensure the Council is proactively working with energy suppliers in offering Energy Efficiency Commitment (EEC) funding and other support to householders. The equivalent of more than £1 billion of ECC funding for energy efficiency measures is available 2005-08. Make sure that people are familiar with all the grant schemes available in the area so that householders can be directed to them. Find out what grants are available for householders, developers, and community groups wishing to undertake renewables projects. Become familiar with the Energy Saving Trust’s funding database.
7. Provide advice for developers and installers of renewable technologies. The Energy Saving Trust can provide a list of accredited renewables and there is also information on how to become an accredited installer and what advantages and benefits this would bring.
8. Set targets for reducing energy use in social housing. Consider providing information to tenants and making energy efficiency improvements to the stock. This can be tied in with affordable warmth targets.
9. Encourage compliance with acceptable standards of energy saving in all buildings, specially old ones, by ensuring that Energy Performance Certificates are made for all buildings on construction, on sale and on rent.

4. Socio-economic consequences

4.1 Current situation in the UK

If we look at long-term historical trends of the economy, we can see it’s remained rather stable for the last 15 years. Both inflation (Chart 4.1) and economic growth (Chart 4.2) have remained within comfortable limits. In fact, it’s been stable for long enough that most people assume that this is the natural state for the economy, and expect it to remain within these reasonable limits for the foreseeable future.

Chart 4.1


But looking deeper in the past, it’s fairly obvious that this is not always so. The latest major upheaval of the economy lasted for about a decade, between 1973 and 1983. And the reason for this was the oil embargoes, combined in the UK with very serious strikes by coal miners. This is when the world learned that stable transport and energy prices are essential for a healthy economy.

The oil rises of the last few years have caused some pain in the economy, but nowhere near as serious as the oil crisis of the seventies. This has led some people to complacency, but it would be a mistake to think that energy prices and the economy aren’t still linked. The restrictions in supply in the seventies were much more severe than what we experienced recently.

One of the consequences of having a stable economy for a long time, in combination with cheap transport, is that it makes business sense to obtain supplies from distant places, if they can be obtained at a cheaper price than locally. This includes even the most essential of products, such as food. But what may look like a perfectly reasonable policy in good times could be disastrous in harsh times.

Chart 4.2


4.2 Trends in an oil and gas crisis

An oil crisis due to peak oil would be qualitatively different from the oil crisis of the seventies. Instead of a sudden cut of supplies that lasts for a few years, it’s a gradual crunch, with supply not being able to keep up with demand or (later on) slowly declining, extended over a period of at least twenty years. The economy has never experienced such a situation before, and we are ill prepared to guess what the exact consequences might be.

Still, it’s a safe bet to say that the economy will not be able to stay healthy in the face of ever increasing prices of transport, in such a globalized world as we live in today. There is a distinct possibility of suffering from stagflation (high inflation coupled with recession), as it happened in the last oil crisis. It’s a logical outcome of an oil crisis, because higher prices of oil raise the prices of everything that is transported, which is most things, leading to inflation. On the other hand, the added difficulties to trade imposed by higher transport prices are likely to cause a recession. This means that another possible outcome is a depression (a very deep recession). Or we may find ourselves into a whole new state of the economy, unknown so far (just as stagflation was unknown until the seventies).

Manufacturing production declined 15% between 1979 and 1983 as a result of the crisis. Many industries, especially steel, are very energy-hungry and dependant on the cost of energy. The industry sector isn’t as strong in the UK as it used to be, and particularly there is less heavy industry, so this may be less noticeable in the coming crisis.

In the seventies, the sales of some products changed for reasons that can be traced more or less directly to the energy crisis. The sales of bicycles went up. DIY-related products went up as well, because it was cheaper to do home improvements oneself than pay somebody to do it, coupled with a slight increase in the time people could be at home. Tobacco sales declined, because people were giving up unnecessary luxuries. But alcohol sales increased, due to the more negative mood of the times. The same patterns may repeat in the future. In fact, the sale of bicycles has already significantly increased.

Economic crises usually cause several well-known social problems. Personal incomes are likely to fall in real terms (though the may not when they aren’t adjusted for inflation). Another common consequence is increased unemployment. Not all sectors will be equally affected by unemployment, though. School leavers and older people (those under 20 and over 40) are the groups that typically find it harder to find employment. Another group likely to suffer is immigrants, especially those with a background very different from our own: Muslims, Asians and Africans. In the seventies, job creation schemes from the government didn’t help much, and the same could happen in the future.

A fall in personal income and high unemployment are both likely to lead to increased homelessness. In the seventies, the number of squatters increased dramatically, and it may happen again, especially taking into account the current housing bubble.

An increase in general violence (especially towards immigrants) is likely, due to the general discontent and joblessness. The riots in 1981, the “summer of fire bombs”, were mostly caused by high unemployment and frustration in an economic recession. The crimes of violence against the person increased in the seventies, as well as the crimes by young people, often unemployed, particularly personal violence and vandalism. Racism also increased, mostly due to a perception that immigrants were stealing British jobs. All these situations are quite likely to repeat. In the current political climate, Muslims are very likely to be a target of hate, even more than they are in the present.

If the economy suffers from high inflation and restrictions are put on wage increases, there is a greater likelihood of strikes. Because of the general discontent, confrontations with workers on strike can be more violent than they were ever before. In the seventies, some workers abandoned some of the traditional restraints on the right to strike, for example putting patients’ lives in danger.

Radical political movements are more likely to be successful in times of economic crisis, because people often blame the current government for the state of the economy. On another level, birth rates lower because people don’t want to have children in harsh times.

A model for what could happen in a severe economic disruption due to an energy crisis is the winter of 1978/1979, the “winter of discontent”, with many civil servants going on strike for better wages, power cuts due to lack of fuel for the electric power stations, pieces of uncollected rubbish everywhere because the dustmen were on strike, rats swarming in the London underground, and emergency ward closures in hospitals.

In the seventies it took 6 years for the situation to become seriously uncomfortable. Similarly, it’s reasonable to expect it will take at least 5 years until discontent is general. If peak oil, as some people believe, happened in 2006, the winter of 2011/2012 could be a rough equivalent to the winter of 1978/1979.

It’s harder to predict things the further we go in the future, but one thing is clear: this energy crisis won’t finish in a short period. Once the world production of oil and gas starts to decline, nothing can make it go up again. There is a limited amount of both in this Earth, and if technology to extract them faster is developed today, it will only mean that there’s even less left for tomorrow. This means that the only way out of the crisis is developing alternative energies. Unfortunately, alternative energies are still in development, and more specifically, substitutes for oil are few and mostly in their infancy. This means that it will take a significant time of research and development of infrastructures to solve this crisis.
To imagine the sort of things we can expect in 10 to 20 years time after peak oil, we can look at a time of even greater fuel scarcity: the Second World War. In that period, the government recommended that people remove inessential light bulbs from their homes, and eat cold food instead of hot as often as possible. Those who lived in the country were encouraged to heat their homes with logs. Shop window lighting was banned, as well as the manufacture of many electric appliances. Homes were given a fuel target that they shouldn’t exceed, and the target was calculated depending on the number of people living in the household, the number of rooms in use, and a regional allowance, so that people living in the North were allowed more than those living in the South. Heating was seriously restricted, and usage of hot water bottles and coats indoors was widespread. There was a general rule that one shouldn’t use more than 5 inches of hot water for a bath.

Transport is likely to become similarly restricted. Bicycles will become the main form of personal transport, and a return of horses for transport of goods in carts is perfectly possible.

If the scarcity of fuel becomes similar to the Second World War situation, some people have expressed concern about food production and whether food rationing is a possibility. A quick comparison shows that the Second World War food situation was nothing like we may expect in the future as a consequence of an energy crisis.

The food shortages in the Second World War were mainly due to a significant reduction in food imports, caused by less available ships (many merchant ships were used for the war effort, and many were sunk by the German U-boats), less suppliers (there were no imports from the enemy countries or from Spain, that had just suffered a civil war) and less purchasing power (the UK developed an impressive debt during the war). The imports of food in 1945 were half as much they were in 1939. On top of this, the lack of ships also affected fishing, that was greatly reduced in war times.

An energy crisis won’t reduce the numbers of our ships or our suppliers. It is likely to reduce our purchasing power, though. And it will certainly increase the cost of transport. Shipping is the cheapest form of transport, but the transport of food before and after it’s shipped will be significantly more expensive. This means that food from abroad is likely to be available, but expensive. And the current distribution system used by supermarkets will need to be revised, to cut on unnecessary transport.

There will be a strong incentive to grow as much food as possible locally, and a revival of the Second World War use of allotments and gardens to grow vegetables is likely. The UK can increase the amount of land used for agriculture easily. Currently, it’s at levels similar to 1939 (12.5 million acres in the present, compared to almost 12 million acres in 1939). By 1945, it had grown to 18 million acres. A similar growth is entirely possible in the future.

There are other areas where there is plenty of room for improvement: currently, it’s estimated that about one third of all the food suitable for consumption in the UK is thrown away, either by supermarkets to keep with sell-by regulations, or by individuals at home that don’t want to use leftovers.

Currently the UK is 58% self sufficient in all foods, and 71% self sufficient in indigenous foods. A 33% increase in agricultural land plus a 33% reduction in waste would leave ample space to adequately feed everyone with the food grown exclusively in the UK, but this won’t be necessary, as trade with other European countries is highly unlikely to stop.

In short, a famine would be highly unlikely even in the direst scenarios. It didn’t happen in the Second World War, and the food situation as a whole was worse. Food disruptions are also unlikely, because the British government has kept to this day the war system of storing emergency food supplies, in case of any major disruption.

Rationing also seems unlikely. The main reason for rationing is that the government wants to insure that everybody has access to the basic food necessities when there is a serious shortage of food. But it looks like it would be food luxuries what is likely to disappear from our diet, rather than necessities. Unless climate change is more severe than current estimations and crop failure becomes much more common, food rationing is an unlikely event.

Finally, a word about water. Global warming could make the UK drier, though this isn’t clear yet. This isn't a serious problem, because it's likely to remain still much wetter than Southern Europe in current times. But the infrastructure to store water during the dry season may be missing, as we have seen with the droughts in 2006.

All this may look like a very dismal future, but let’s not forget that in spite of all the privations, civilization didn’t collapse in the Second World War. And in many respects, we are likely to be better off than our grandparents.

4.3. Brighton in an oil and gas crisis

If there is an economic crisis, at first glance it would be fair to presume that it would affect Brighton in a similar way to most of the UK. The gross domestic household income per head is slightly higher than average, but the difference isn’t significant enough to believe it would represent any departure from the rest of the UK.

Business in Brighton is centered on services. The types of business that hire more employees in Brighton than the national average are:
- Distribution, hotels and catering and repairs
- Financial businesses and services
- Education, social work and health services

Services don’t require high amounts of energy, so an energy crisis doesn’t affect them much directly. It does affect them indirectly, as an economic crisis often drives people to spend less on services. The situation is complicated by the fact that many of these businesses depend on frequent interaction with London to flourish, and it’s hard to tell how an increase in transport costs would affect them. On one hand, it would increase the transport costs to London but on the other, London is still closer to Brighton than most other places in the UK, which may make Brighton-based businesses seem preferable in comparison. A more detailed analysis would be needed to determine what the most likely outcome is.

A closer look at other indicators shows a bleaker picture. Unemployment in Brighton is higher than the national average, 3% compared with 2.6%, and much higher than the South East average, that is 1.6%. And long-term unemployment (those claiming over 12 months) is significantly higher than average, 21% of all claims compared with 15%. At the same time, a significant fraction of the labour force in Brighton is made up of young people, with 20% of workers under 25 years old, in comparison with 15% in the national average. All these data suggest that in an economic crisis unemployment figures may rise more dramatically here than in other areas in the South East.

Homelessness is also a more serious problem in Brighton than in other areas, and it could become exacerbated by high unemployment.

Violent crimes are also more prevalent in Brighton than average (28 per year per person compared with 19). This suggests that crime may become a serious problem in a crisis. There is a positive side: the vast majority (92%) of the population in Brighton is white, with very small racial minorities. This will mean that racial tensions won’t be as significant as in other areas. As for religious tensions, there is a small Muslim community (1.5%) that is in general well integrated and not extremist, so chances are that there won’t be much friction in that area.

In terms of local food, Brighton is in a good position. Because Sussex is in the South of England, a variety of foods that can’t be grown elsewhere are grown in Sussex, which means that there is access to a varied diet grown locally. Sussex grows proportionally more veg and salad (excluding peas and beans) and fruit than other areas of England, giving us easy access to a healthy diet. On the other hand, not as many cereals and potatoes are grown here. As staple foods are traditionally overproduced, this should not be a problem unless climate change caused extensive crop failures all over Europe.

4.4. Recommendations for individuals

For most people, their main source of income comes from their jobs. The coming energy crisis is likely to have a very negative impact on the economy, which means unemployment will almost certainly rise. To determine how much at risk a particular job is, there are two key questions:

1) How important is the job for the functioning of the company or organization?
2) How important is what the company or organization does for the functioning of society?

Possible answers to both questions could be:
- A luxury: something that people like for special occasions
- Convenient: something that people like on a regular basis
- Important: something that people could do without, but they’d rather not
- Essential: something that people couldn’t do without

The closer answers are to the end of the list, the safer is the job. Most organizations can resist economic recession better than individuals, so the answer to the first question has more weight than the answer to the second.

If an individual feels that their job could be at risk in an economic crisis, the best strategy would be to try to perform more important functions within the company or organization they are in now. It’s usually easier to make career moves within the same organization than changing job. If this seems difficult, another good strategy is doing the same job for another company or organization that is more important to society and/or where the job is more important for their functioning.

Individuals who are currently in debt should try to get out of debt as soon as possible. It is usually much more complicated to pay off debts in times of economic crisis, though there are exceptions: in a hyperinflation scenario, debts become much smaller in real terms. But it’s a risky bet to suppose it will be easier, rather than harder, to pay off debt.

Individuals who have money for investing should consider alternative energy companies as a good investment. There isn’t such a thing as big alternative energy companies yet, but it’s reasonable to invest in companies that are settled and have a relatively wide customer base. Another good investment is bicycle manufacturers (bicycles outsold cars in 2006). Buying gold and silver is the classical way of keeping money safe during recessions and it can also be a good idea. Investors in property could consider country houses in areas that look like self-sufficiency is possible, but almost any other property investment is doubtful as it looks likely that the UK is currently at the top of a housing bubble.

Ideally, individuals should own a house that is close to their place of work and to supplies of all their essential needs. People who live in homes nowhere near this ideal may want to consider moving. If this isn’t a possibility, it may be a good idea to acquire an alternative refuge, for worst case scenarios. This refuge could be anything from a mountain refuge to a beach hut, or even a tent or an old vehicle parked in a suitable location. It doesn’t need to be a house, but it must be something they are certain they can use and nobody is going to take away (it shouldn’t be something that is only partially paid for, for example). It could also be a room in a friend’s or relative’s home, but in that case, several separate offers from different people are needed to feel reasonably secure that at least one of them will be available. Preferably, the refuge would be in the countryside, close to water and sources of food. It should have enough tools and the area should have enough resources that an individual could stay indefinitely there, if it was absolutely necessary.

In terms of food, it might be worthwhile to grow vegetables in a small garden, allotment or in pots, not with the intention of feeding oneself, but because certain foods may become scarce. Little luxuries, such as spices, strawberries, cherry tomatoes or anything you particularly like could be a good idea.

As for water, there is some possibility of water cuts if droughts become more frequent with global warming, and practicing water-efficient habits could be helpful.

4.5. Recommendations for businesses and organizations

An economic crisis usually means that many businesses will face tough times and even possibly close down. To determine how well a particular business is likely to do, ask this question: How important is what the company does for the functioning of society?

Possible answers could be:
- A luxury: something that people like for special occasions
- Convenient: something that people like on a regular basis
- Important: something that people could do without, but they’d rather not
- Essential: something that people couldn’t do without

The closer the answer is to the end of the list, the less likely is a particular business to be in trouble. If a company is at risk, the best strategy would be to try to become more essential for their customers.

Communications become especially important in a difficult economic climate, but some of them may be disrupted. Mail (especially air mail) is likely to become more expensive. Companies and organizations who use this service very often should think of ways of reducing it to a minimum and substituting with electronic communications whenever possible. On the other hand, if power cuts become more frequent, electronic communications will become more and more unreliable. If this happens, organizations will need to have alternatives ready whenever a particular message is vital. Mobile phones are good for brief messages. But whenever there is a need to transmit a significant amount of information, it’s important to make sure that the systems that will transmit it have an alternative power supply.

As crime is likely to increase in the face of a serious economic crisis, any measures taken to prevent crime, especially vandalism and theft, may prove useful.

In many organizations, the location is given by the nature of what they do, and it wouldn't make much sense to move. But those that don't actually need to be close to customers or suppliers should seriously consider getting closer to their employees. People who were happy to commute in the past may not be so happy in the future.

4.6. Recommendations for the local government

It may look like there isn’t a lot local government can do in the face of a global economic crisis, but it’s always possible to try to keep Brighton in a relatively good position. For a start, it’s important that budgets aren’t just made for a “business as usual” scenario, but also for a “economically challenging” scenario, with specific rules distinguishing whether we are in an economically challenging scenario, and enough flexibility built into them that it’s possible to shift from the first budget to the second with relative ease.

Also, there should be provisions for a possible increase in unemployment and homelessness, and collaboration with all government agencies dealing with these matters, so that the situation isn’t worsened by lack of foresight.

Brighton has a number of characteristic features that will make it a case apart from other British cities, and each of them could be turned into a positive aspect that could overcome the negative socioeconomic impact of an energy crisis if the Council made the right efforts. Let’s look at each of them in turn.

Tourism. Brighton is very dependent on tourism and weekenders. At first sight, this sounds like bad news, because if people are going to cut on unnecessary traveling, holiday traveling may be one of the first things to go. On the other hand, many people who usually take a plane to some faraway destination on their holiday may find that plane fares have gone up spectacularly, and choose to have a holiday in Great Britain. This means that, with careful marketing, Brighton could actually experience and increase in English tourism that offsets the losses. The weekenders that come from London are unlikely to be discouraged to come due to an increase in the price of transport, because London is close enough that the cost of coming here is insignificant compared with the total amount of money they would normally spend on the trip. But it’s more than likely that they will have a tighter budget than they’ve had so far, and spend less in Brighton than they did before. Again, careful marketing may be able to deal with these issues.

Environmental activism. Brighton is a city that’s known by the strong interest their inhabitants have on environmental issues: currently it has the most councilors from the Green Party (twelve) and it is the city most likely to win the first Green MP. However, this interest doesn’t mean that Brighton, at this point, is particularly well informed of the coming energy crisis. If all the members of the Council, regardless of party, join efforts with local environmental groups and start making energy policy a priority, and there is a generalized effort to optimize usage of energy, promote alternative energies and encourage the use of local resources (like, for example, allotments to grow vegetables), Brighton could become a model of good management of an energy crisis.

Political influence. Brighton is a city with more opportunities to change British policy than average. Annual conferences of major political parties are celebrated here and some local MPs are active in green issues within the current government. In other words, if there are political solutions for some of the consequences of the crisis, Brighton is uniquely situated to influence these decisions, even at a national level.

London. For good and for bad, Brighton seems to be only a hop away from London. London, like any of the great cities of the world, is heavily dependent on getting a huge amount of necessities provided for by different means of transport. This can be beneficial for Brighton, if we make sure it helps to get our share at a fair price, or disastrous, if we don’t.

More than anything else, what the Council can do is provide an alternative idea of how things could be done, not just adapting to the changes imposed by peak oil and climate change, but being prepared for them well in advance, educating people on what to expect, encouraging responsible use for energy and promoting renewable energy. Being an example of what is possible to do by thinking about these issues in advance, instead of passively reacting when it’s too late, can be the biggest difference of all.

Brighton has two futures: a dark one, where nobody has prepared for the crisis, and a bright one, where people have prepared and set an example to the rest of the UK and, indeed, the world. There is a seventies precedent: the North Laine, that had become practically a slum and all city planners intended to convert in an office area, gradually became what it is now thanks to the concerted efforts of the people who lived there, first to elevate it to the category of Conservation area, and then to improve it without losing its natural charm. And this didn’t happen in a time of booming prosperity, but in the middle of the last oil crisis.

5. References

The following documentation has been consulted in producing this study:

1. Energy consumption in the UK, Department of Trade and Industry, 2006
2. Energy white paper, Department of Trade and Industry, 2006
3. UK energy in brief, Department of Trade and Industry, 2005
4. Transport statistics for Great Britain, Department for Transport, 2005
5. Road freight statistics, Department for Transport, 2005
6. Focus on personal travel, Department for Transport, 2005
7. Environmental accounts, Office for National Statistics, spring 2007
8. Leading the way: how local authorities can meet the challenge of climate change, Energy Saving Trust, 2007
9. Region in figures: South East, Office for National Statistics, 2006
10. Total energy strategy, BioRegional Development group, 1999
11. Sustainable energy in marine transportation, Zabi Bazari and Gill Reynolds, 2005
12. British society since 1945, Arthur Marwick, 1982
13. Agricultural and horticultural survey, Department for the Environment, Food and Rural Affairs, 2007


In addition, the following websites have been consulted extensively for obtaining specific figures relevant to this study:

1. http://www.statistics.gov.uk/
2. http://neighbourhood.statistics.gov.uk/
3. http://www.berr.gov.uk (formerly http://www.dti.gov.uk)

Also, the following websites have been consulted for relevant information, especially on recommendations:

1. http://www.energysavingtrust.org.uk/
2. http://www.carbontrust.co.uk/
3. http://www.foe.co.uk/
4. http://www.egeneration.co.uk/
5. http://www.hospitableclimates.org.uk/
6. http://www.local.gov.uk/
7. http://www.communities.gov.uk/
8. http://www.nlgn.org.uk/